Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model

Alexey Ponomarenko
Bank of Russia
Svetlana Popova
Bank of Russia
Andrey Sinyakov
Bank of Russia
Natalia Turdyeva
Bank of Russia
Dmitry Chernyadyev
Bank of Russia

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of anti-coronavirus measures on the dynamics of economic activity. In addition to primary shocks directly caused by restrictive measures, we assess their secondary effects through inter-industry relationships. Our assessments show that secondary effects impact more industries than primary effects do. The overall impact of secondary effects on the economy proves to be of a larger scale than the impact of primary effects with high heterogeneity of dynamics by industry.