Awarding of winners of 2023 Economic Research Competition for Students and PhD Fellows
On 5 July 2023, Saint Petersburg hosted the awarding ceremony for the winners of the annual Economic Research Competition for Students and PhD Fellows held by the Bank of Russia and the Russian Journal of Money and Finance. The ceremony took place in the course of a special session of the joint scientific seminar of the Bank of Russia, the New Economic School (NES), and the specialised department of the Bank of Russia at the Higher School of Economics.
The diplomas to the winners were awarded by Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia and Chief Editor of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance.
Competition winners Daniil Lomonosov (left) and Ivan Golyukov (right) with Ksenia Yudaeva, RJMF Chief Editor, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia.
After the ceremony, Daniil Lomonosov who won the first prize presented his paper analysing the impact of oil market shocks on the macro indicators of the Russian economy under different monetary policy regimes.
Daniil Lomonosov, first prize winner of the 2023 Economic Research Competition for Students and PhD Fellows
The Bank of Russia jointly with the Russian Journal of Money and Finance organised the first annual research competition for students and PhD fellows in 2019. Its aim is to support young economists and enable them to present the results of their research to the academic community and receive recommendations from their peers that might be useful for future research.
This year, the winners of the competition were invited to several scientific and educational events held by the Bank of Russia in Saint Petersburg on 4–7 July. In addition to the scientific seminar, the winners also take part in the Bank of Russia’s Summer Macroeconomic School and the sessions of the Financial Congress.
The Editorial Board of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance congratulates the winners!
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First prize: Daniil Lomonosov Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration for the research 'Business Activity Shock and Specific Shock of Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy: Their Impact Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes' |
| 'In this research, I built a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Russian economy with the global oil market and two monetary policy rules, namely a fixed exchange rate and inflation targeting. This is the first study based on a DSGE model of the Russian economy breaking down different types of oil market shocks by their source. Using this model, I analyse the consequences of the Bank of Russia’s switch in its monetary policy from the managed exchange rate to inflation targeting and show that the transition to the latter contributed to a significant decrease in the dependence of the Russian economy on the situation in the global oil market. The model can also be used to test a broad range of monetary policy tools considering the impact of various oil market shocks and to study how different macrovariables respond to these shocks'. | |
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First prize: Daniil Lomonosov Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
for the research 'In this research, I built a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Russian economy with the global oil market and two monetary policy rules, namely a fixed exchange rate and inflation targeting. This is the first study based on a DSGE model of the Russian economy breaking down different types of oil market shocks by their source. Using this model, I analyse the consequences of the Bank of Russia’s switch in its monetary policy from the managed exchange rate to inflation targeting and show that the transition to the latter contributed to a significant decrease in the dependence of the Russian economy on the situation in the global oil market. The model can also be used to test a broad range of monetary policy tools considering the impact of various oil market shocks and to study how different macrovariables respond to these shocks'. |
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Second prize: Ivan Belousov Lomonosov Moscow State University for the research 'Econometric Estimation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Channels Using Microdata from Russian Companies' |
| 'Based on Russian microdata, I check the existence of the balance sheet channel of the monetary policy transmission, that is, the influence of monetary policy shocks on changes in companies’ balance sheet structures. The impact of monetary policy shocks varies across companies. Using data from accounting statements of over 1.24 million companies from different industries, I estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on changes in the leverage ratios depending on companies’ size and industry. The research proves the existence of the balance sheet channel, enables its quantification, and identifies the economic effect caused by monetary policy shocks of various intensity. Specifically, when the key rate is raised by one percentage point (pp), a company’s long-term debt to total assets ratio decreases by 0.264 pp on average, whereas its short-term debt to total assets ratio – by 0.268 pp. Microenterpises demonstrate the most notable response to a key rate rise. As to industries, the response to a monetary policy shock is the strongest in agriculture and construction'. | |
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Second prize: Ivan Belousov Lomonosov Moscow State University
for the research 'Based on Russian microdata, I check the existence of the balance sheet channel of the monetary policy transmission, that is, the influence of monetary policy shocks on changes in companies’ balance sheet structures. The impact of monetary policy shocks varies across companies. Using data from accounting statements of over 1.24 million companies from different industries, I estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on changes in the leverage ratios depending on companies’ size and industry. The research proves the existence of the balance sheet channel, enables its quantification, and identifies the economic effect caused by monetary policy shocks of various intensity. Specifically, when the key rate is raised by one percentage point (pp), a company’s long-term debt to total assets ratio decreases by 0.264 pp on average, whereas its short-term debt to total assets ratio – by 0.268 pp. Microenterpises demonstrate the most notable response to a key rate rise. As to industries, the response to a monetary policy shock is the strongest in agriculture and construction'. |
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Third prize: Gleb Lysenko Lomonosov Moscow State University for the research 'Decomposition of Consumer Inflation into Demand and Supply Effects in the Context of Commodity Groups and Regions of Russia' |
| 'As far as I know, my paper is the first research where consumer inflation in Russia is decomposed into demand and supply effects using econometric tools. Inflation targeting is based on the influence on aggregate demand in the economy through the key rate. Inflation is mostly accelerated by supply-side factors, whereas a key rate increase, which is monetary policy tightening, might, to the contrary, induce negative effects slowing down output growth. However, my research proves that changes in all components of the Consumer Price Index are mostly caused by demand-side factors. The impact of supply increases during crisis periods, with aggregate prices responding to supply shocks more strongly compared to prices for particular goods and services. Besides, I would like to note that my analysis of demand and supply across regions is based on the Federal Tax Service’s daily data, and the results prove that these data could be efficient for constructing the leading indicator of inflation'. | |
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Third prize: Gleb Lysenko Lomonosov Moscow State University
for the research 'As far as I know, my paper is the first research where consumer inflation in Russia is decomposed into demand and supply effects using econometric tools. Inflation targeting is based on the influence on aggregate demand in the economy through the key rate. Inflation is mostly accelerated by supply-side factors, whereas a key rate increase, which is monetary policy tightening, might, to the contrary, induce negative effects slowing down output growth. However, my research proves that changes in all components of the Consumer Price Index are mostly caused by demand-side factors. The impact of supply increases during crisis periods, with aggregate prices responding to supply shocks more strongly compared to prices for particular goods and services. Besides, I would like to note that my analysis of demand and supply across regions is based on the Federal Tax Service’s daily data, and the results prove that these data could be efficient for constructing the leading indicator of inflation'. |
Special diploma
For Analysis of Financial Inclusion Factors:
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Ivan Golyukov Far Eastern Federal University for the research 'Impact of Access to Mobile Internet on Digital Financial Inclusion' |
| 'Financial inclusion is one of the central bank’s functions. My paper analyses how efficiently access to mobile internet in Russia could help improve financial inclusion. In addition, I take into account the effects of social and economic factors that could lead to an under- or over-estimation of this influence, such as the percentage of people with higher education, the poverty level, the proportion of the youth, the availability of ATMs and payment terminals, and others. Using Rosstat’s and the Bank of Russia’s data on 83 Russian regions, I find out that when the share of mobile internet users in a region edges up by 1%, the percentage of individuals’ electronic payment orders increases by 2.4%. Such a significant effect could be associated with the fact that consumers who start using electronic payments might influence financial preferences of other people, for example, their family members (who might ask such a user to make payments on their behalf)'. | |
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Ivan Golyukov Far Eastern Federal University
for the research 'Financial inclusion is one of the central bank’s functions. My paper analyses how efficiently access to mobile internet in Russia could help improve financial inclusion. In addition, I take into account the effects of social and economic factors that could lead to an under- or over-estimation of this influence, such as the percentage of people with higher education, the poverty level, the proportion of the youth, the availability of ATMs and payment terminals, and others. Using Rosstat’s and the Bank of Russia’s data on 83 Russian regions, I find out that when the share of mobile internet users in a region edges up by 1%, the percentage of individuals’ electronic payment orders increases by 2.4%. Such a significant effect could be associated with the fact that consumers who start using electronic payments might influence financial preferences of other people, for example, their family members (who might ask such a user to make payments on their behalf)'. |