Impact of central banks communications on market expectations: New issue of Russian Journal of Money and Finance
The fourth issue of the scholarly quarterly Russian Journal of Money and Finance of 2024 has been published.
Communication policy is one of the main tools that central banks use to control inflation as it can boost the efficiency of monetary policy. To assess the influence of the Bank of Russia’s communications, Victoria Bannikova (Lomonosov Moscow State University) estimates their impact on the yield curve of federal government bonds. A study by Alexey Erokhin and Olga Klachkova (Lomonosov Moscow State University) shows a statistically significant correlation between investors’ inflation expectations and a ‘hawkish’ or ‘dovish’ tone of the Bank of Russia’s press releases and other news relating to its monetary policy.
A country’s regions may react differently to the central bank’s monetary decisions as they are heterogeneous in terms of inflation, budget expenditures, the sectoral structures of their economies, their involvement in foreign economic chains, etc., which is true for Russia’s regions as well. A group of researchers from the Siberian Main Branch of the Bank of Russia develop a region-specific projection model for the Siberian macroregion. When describing the model, the authors note that a stronger response to changes in world commodity prices than in Russia as a whole is a distinctive feature of the economy of the Siberian macroregion.
A high-quality forecast of budget revenues is required to analyse economic policy and determine its optimal parameters. Matvey Finagin and Sergey Sheremeta (Bank of Russia) examine a number of models for forecasting non-oil&gas revenues. The authors find that the best forecast is the one obtained by separately forecasting revenues for eight groups of taxes (from personal income tax to import duties).
The new issue of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance (No. 4, 2024) is available on its website.