The Russian Journal of Money and Finance: Best-performing indicators to forecast Russian GDP growth and the effects of fiscal devaluation on the small economy

March 29, 2019
The first 2019 issue of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance opens with papers on macroeconomic forecasting. As our authors show, a complex forecasting method does not always perform the best, and traditional indicators are not always the most revealing.

Heiner Mikosch (ETH Zurich) and Laura Solanko (BOFIT) suggest that several monetary, banking sector and financial market variables have better short-term forecasting performance of Russian GDP than crude oil prices and exchange rates.

Konstantin Styrin (New Economic School and Bank of Russia) demonstrates that the Dynamic Model Averaging method does not yield forecasts that systematically outperform simpler benchmarks.

In their paper, researches from Brazil assess exchange rate pass-through to inflation and its relationship to central bank credibility.

Róbert Ambriško (CERGE-EI and Czech National Bank) considers the effect of fiscal devaluation (a decrease in wage taxes along with an increase in indirect taxes) on economic growth.

The issue closes with a paper by Marcin Borsuk (Kazimierz Wielki University), which offers an assessment of bank solvency by stress-testing using data from Poland.